Geopolitics around Syria

I just drew a map showing the 30 largest World powers, according to GDP (PPP), and reflecting their governments' political stand on the so-far speculative attack against Syria:

Red: imperialist camp: government declared support for attack against Syria
Blue: anti-imperialist camp: government declared opposition to attack against Syria
Yellow: unknown official stand
Black: Syria (for reference)
Circles' areas are proportional to GDP(PPP)
(IMF data 2012, except Syria: WB 2005-2012)

Notice please that the alignment of governments on this matter may and in most cases does not reflect that of the people or even the parliament. In fact in some cases (UK), the government had to step down from its hawkish stand because of parliamentary opposition. In all cases the citizenry seems very hostile to any new imperialist adventure, especially considering how poorly justified it is (obvious psy-op) and who are the beneficiaries (Islamist terrorists of the worst kind).

Personally I believe (or at least hope) that the attack will never take place and that the various imperialist governments are actually using the parliament card to get an excuse not to intervene, while at the same time using the crisis to gauge the weight of global alliances.

But, whatever the case, we do get an interesting picture of global alignments. First of all the BRICS bloc has responded unanimously against the imperialist aggression, second some important and possibly unexpected non-BRICS states like Mexico, Egypt or Indonesia stand against the intervention. Of these the most notable is probably Germany, which also opposed (along with Italy) the intervention in Libya.

One can speculate that Merkel is just being cautious because of the elections but in fact she has such a wide advantage that she could do anything. The reality is that all this classical Western imperialism (it's just like the old Entente) is hurting German interests, which has long and strong ties with states like Iran, not to mention Russia, etc.

Also very notorious is the stand of India, often ambiguous. But maybe the most interesting development is the stand of Egypt. It is not just a calculated stand to appease the populace but apparently the Egyptian military is very hostile to any intervention in Syria and would like Assad to stay in place. In fact the anti-Damascus stand of the former President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have been one of the triggers of the military coup.

Not just the military, heavily dependent on US aid, but also Tamarod flatly rejects any intervention against Syria and has called for the government to close the Suez canal to Western military ships in such event, calling traitors to anyone who supported the Western aggression. 

The ghost of Nasser, who nationalized the Suez canal and was adamant of pan-Arabism, has returned strongly to Egyptian politics. Many would like Al-Sissi to be another Nasser, although I suspect that this is quite unlikely.

In any case around the Syrian crisis a new cold war seems to be brewing. True that China, the rising superpower, is keeping a relatively low profile but it is also true that, would the crisis escalate to the Persian Gulf, as it is perfectly possible they would be extremely upset.

Egypt: did Morsi lose the support of the Army for his plans to attack Syria and Ethiopia?

That's what Press TV and some other media say, echoing an analysis issued first by the Washington Post.

The combination of Morsi’s aggressive designs against Syria, together with some trial balloons from presidential circles about a possible conflict with Ethiopia, plus the massive anti-Morsi demonstrations organized by the National Salvation Front and the Tamarod movement, convinced military leaders that the incompetent and erratic Morsi, who had destroyed his own popularity by selling out to the demands of the International Monetary Fund last November, represented an intolerable risk for Egypt.

According to the Washington Post, the dissatisfaction of the Egyptian military with Morsi “peaked in June, when Morsi stood by twice as officials around him called for Egyptian aggression against Ethiopia and Syria, threatening to suck Egypt into conflicts that it could ill afford, former military officials said.” 

Regarding Ethiopia:

In the spring of this year, tensions rose between Egypt and Ethiopia when the government in Addis Ababa announced its intention to build a dam on the Blue Nile, prompting concerns by some in Egypt about future water supplies downstream. On June 2, with Morsi in attendance, Islamist politicians recklessly discussed how to sabotage the dam by funding Ethiopian rebel groups, followed by an attack by the Egyptian air force. Unknown to the participants, this incendiary discussion was broadcast on live television. Many were long to see that Morsi did not repudiate these proposals for naked aggression, but instead later commented that “all options are open.” 

Of course these would be at most just elements of a more complex scenario in which the disgraced President threw himself, his movement and all Egypt by repeatedly bowing to Washington, Tel Aviv and the IMF.

Egypt: repression against Tamarrod begins

As former dictator Hosni Mubarak was set free in spite of the many charges still standing against them, the Tamarrod movement began calling for demonstrations against such atrocity, a clear sign of the return to Mubarakism by the hand of the military junta. 

State attorneys Mahmud Badr, Mohamed Abdel Aziz and Hassan Chahin are instigating accusations against the popular movement, who have called for protests against the ridiculous acquittal and liberation of the dictator in spite of all his violations against human rights and democracy. 

Source: Noticias de Prensa Latina[es].

Egypt: the third way

Something that is becoming obvious to me in the ongoing Egyptian crisis is that, by forcing the situation from a struggle between the Egyptian People vs. the Government (first Mubarak, then Morsi) to one between two reactionary forces: the Army and the Brotherhood, the revolutionary forces in Egypt have been completely sidelined while creating the pretext for a de-facto dictatorship again.

I have been missing accounts that are not pro-Brotherhood or pro-Military but sufficiently independent and cold-headed. In this sense I welcome very much the effort by The Real News Network to interview independent Egyptian analysts in two successive video-interviews, which I mirror here.

Egypt: statement of the Revolutionary Socialists

Neither with Morsi nor with Sissi, for Egypt and for People's Power. The Revolutionary Socialists seem one of the few Egyptian forces able to remain independent and opposed to all forms of totalitarianism, be it Islmanist or neo-Mubarakist. At least that's what they claim:

August 14, 2013 -- The bloody dissolution of the sit-ins in Al-Nahda Square and Raba'a al-Adawiyya is nothing but a massacre—prepared in advance. It aims to liquidate the Muslim Brotherhood. But, it is also part of a plan to liquidate the Egyptian Revolution and restore the military-police state of the Mubarak regime.

The Revolutionary Socialists did not defend the regime of Mohamed Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood for a single day. We were always in the front ranks of the opposition to that criminal, failed regime which betrayed the goals of the Egyptian Revolution. It even protected the pillars of the Mubarak regime and its security apparatus, armed forces and corrupt businessmen. We strongly participated in the revolutionary wave of 30 June.

Neither did we defend for a single day the sit-ins by the Brotherhood and their attempts to return Mursi to power.

But we have to put the events of today in their context, which is the use of the military to smash up workers' strikes. We also see the appointment of new provincial governors—largely drawn from the ranks of the remnants of the old regime, the police and military generals. Then there are the policies of General Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi's government. It has adopted a road-map clearly hostile to the goals and demands of the Egyptian revolution, which are freedom, dignity and social justice.

This is the context for the brutal massacre which the army and police are committing. It is a bloody dress rehearsal for the liquidation of the Egyptian Revolution. It aims to break the revolutionary will of all Egyptians who are claiming their rights, whether workers, poor, or revolutionary youth, by creating a state of terror.

However, the reaction by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists in attacking Christians and their churches, is a sectarian crime which only serves the forces of counter-revolution. The filthy attempt to create a civil war, in which Egyptian Christians will fall victims to the reactionary Muslim Brotherhood, is one in which Mubarak's state and Al-Sisi are complicit, who have never for a single day defended the Copts and their churches.

We stand firmly against Al-Sisi's massacres, and against his ugly attempt to abort the Egyptian Revolution. For today's massacre is the first step in the road towards counter-revolution. We stand with the same firmness against all assaults on Egypt's Christians and against the sectarian campaign which only serves the interests of Al-Sisi and his bloody project.

Many who described themselves as liberals and leftists have betrayed the Egyptian Revolution, led by those who took part in Al-Sisi's government. They have sold the blood of the martyrs to whitewash the military and the counter-revolution. These people have blood on their hands.

We, the Revolutionary Socialists, will never deviate for an instant from the path of the Egyptian Revolution. We will never compromise on the rights of the revolutionary martyrs and their pure blood: those who fell confronting Mubarak, those who fell confronting the Military Council, those who fell confronting Mursi's regime, and those who fall now confronting Al-Sisi and his dogs.

Down with military rule!
No the return of the old regime!
No to the return of the Brotherhood!
All power and wealth to the people!

Sources LINKS, Socialist Worker.

Egyptian military authorities abusing Palestinians

Snowden is not the only one stranded at some airport: dozens of Palestinian families are stuck in Cairo airport unable to reach Palestine by any means, as are many other thousands since Egypt decided to close the Rafah crossing (again).

From Electronic Intifada:

“We spent about four days in a three-meter-wide and ten-meter-long corridor in Cairo international airport. On Monday, when I left back to Tunisia, there were dozens of stranded people like myself, including two families with children, wanting to cross on their way back to Gaza,” Salama Marouf told The Electronic Intifada by phone.

Marouf is now back to Tunisia, after being deported by Egypt and where he had already spent one week attending a media conference.

He is one of the thousands of people affected by Egypt’s ban on Palestinians entering the country in order to return to Gaza, the only route home for the vast majority of the strip’s residents.

The Rafah crossing on the border between Egypt and Gaza, about a six-hour drive from Cairo’s airport, is the main outlet to the outside world for Gaza’s nearly 1.7 million residents, due to Israel’s ongoing land, sea and air blockade of the territory.

Egypt closed the Rafah crossing after the army’s 3 July ouster of elected president Muhammad Morsi, stranding thousands of Palestinians abroad.

“For me personally, I had the chance to get a visa back to Tunisia with the help of the organizers of the conference,” Marouf said. “Many other travelers with whom I was stranded had difficulties getting back to the countries they had arrived from. We recently learned that the Egyptian authorities’ decision is still valid and there is no way for hundreds of Palestinians to go back to Gaza.”

After closing Rafah, Egypt began to deport Gaza residents as they arrived at Cairo airport, and instructed international airlines to deny boarding to Palestinian Authority passport holders on flights bound for Cairo.

The Egyptian provisional authorities blame Hamas of being behind attacks in Sinai Peninsula, which are in fact the making of Bedouins, who have their own grudges with the central Egyptian administration, which has neglected them for decades:

There have been several attacks on Egyptian army posts by militants in the Sinai peninsula since the army takeover, and Egyptian military officials have repeatedly blamed Palestinians and Hamas, which runs the government in Gaza, of involvement. There as been no credible evidence offered to support these allegations.

Lina Atallah and Mohamad Salama Adam, of the independent Egyptian news site Mada Masr, reported on 9 July that military claims of instability in Sinai, used to justify the closure of Rafah, are exaggerated (“Less than a warzone”).

One Egyptian judge, who welcomed the army takeover, even blamed Hamas for the fuel shortage that had hit Egypt in the days before Morsi’s ouster. The judge claimed, in The New York Times on 10 July, that the Morsi government had withheld fuel supplies from Egyptians in order to ship them to Gaza. This claim, also totally unsubstantiated, echoes pervasive anti-Palestinian messaging and rumor-mongering in Egyptian media.

These arbitrary and pro-Zionist measures are particularly painful as they cause family separation in the Ramadan, the holy month of fasting for the majority of Palestinians.

Egypt: the plans of the military are bourgeois, not democratic

According to the transition plan designed by the military, before any elections take place the current provisional government (or a committee named by it) will design a new constitution on which the citizens will only be able to say yes or no. That's not democratic: there will be no new constituent assembly and the current islamist constitution will only be amended, retaining elements like the officialdom of Sunni Islam and the Sharia as inspiration for the law.

The government is already full of imperial puppets like Mohamed El-Baradei and neoliberal economist Hazem El-Beblawi, supporter of the cut of subsidies to basic food and oil. This non-democratic government is, in the analysis of the Revolutionary Communist Grouping (ACR) of Chile, a "Bonapartist" regime determined to keep the cooperation with the Zionist colonial enclave and to carry on a deeply anti-social economic policy.

All this shows that the military intervention, far from being the culmination of the Egyptian Revolution is still a mere incident in a clearly unfinished process because all those were exactly the reasons that brought millions to the streets to oppose Morsi and Mubarak before him. As soon as the anti-social neoliberal policies manifest in full, the streets of Egypt will be boiling again most probably. These people will solve nothing, their only advantage being the lack of a class movement worth that name among Egyptians.

Source: Webguerrillero[es].

Egypt: Petras analysis of the causes behind Morsi's failure

Borroka Garaia Da! publishes today a Spanish language article by James Petras (veteran international analyst from the USA) in which he synthetically analyzes the causes behind the fall of Morsi in four points (my synthesis):

1. The economy: Morsi adopted a neoliberal plan of removing subsidies without any kind of investment for job generation. He resorted to loans by the FMI, which demanded that suicidal economic strategy. The government was so undecided that it did nothing worth mentioning in this key economic aspect: neither social redistribution, nor investments... nothing. The result: economic deterioriation.
2. Sectarism: Morsi promoted divisionist fundamentalist policies that only satisfied the most fanatic among his supporters. 
3. Authoritarianism: imposing partisan appointments and abusing the presidential power against the other branches of government, disdaining any possible wider consensus.
4. Collaboration with Zionism and other Western Imperialism: maintaining the illegitimate and inhuman blockade against Gaza Strip, supporting the extremists against the Syrian government, totally folding to the demands of the US Empire.

However he mentions that while the core of the opposition is progressive, there are also important elements of supporters of the Old Regime, who want to reverse the democratic process. 

He thinks that Washington is playing many different cars in the Egyptian turmoil: Morsi, the Mubarakists, the center-right liberals, etc.

The military caste in turn is probably just seeking to weaken any civilian government in order to keep their privileges.

Egypt: an Anarchist vision of the 2013 revolutionary movement

Waging Nonviolence published recently an interview with Egyptian Anarchist Mohammed Hassan Aazab in the context of the massive revolutionary uprising of these last days. I reproduce here some excerpts:

(...)

Who called for the general strike? Are there particular unions involved?

No. The unions are totally ineffective.

So how is the strike organized?

Tamarod [the Rebel Movement] called for the general strike. Actually, it has not been organized in advance; it has been a spontaneous development. It will work by people believing in and supporting it.

Do you think people will follow through?

Port Said will start the general strike tomorrow. I have no idea to what extent people will follow through on it, beyond that. But it’s clear people are absolutely determined to force Morsi out.

(...)

How are anarchists organizing within this particular moment. I got the sense that some of you were involved with Tamarod, but are you playing a particular role?

No, anarchists didn’t sign onto the Tamarod declaration. Tamarod is not revolutionary at all. It was just obvious that the movement connected with millions of Egyptians, so we joined the protests. The protesters yesterday were against the idea of an Islamic dictator, but at the same time, most of them are okay with a civil or military dictator. Fuck any dictator. We’ll never forget. We’ll never forgive.

And you’ve got an anarchist tent in Tahrir, right now?
Yes. We’ve got four tents, actually.

(...)

How can people here best support you all?

By spreading the word that Obama and U.S. government are actively supporting the formation of religious states in the Middle East. The U.S. ambassador said that Egyptians should learn the meaning of democracy! Who the fuck is she to say that?

Full interview at Waging Nonviolence.

Egypt: the "coup" is product of the popular revolution, not the other way around

image from WG

Let my stand on this matter be absolutely clear: regardless of whatever contacts and interactions between the actors involved, when millions walk out persistently in demand of change it cannot be caused by any single nor composite socio-political force but it responds to the real demands, anger and outrage of the People. In Egypt as in Turkey, Brazil or anywhere else.

Another thing is where the processes triggered by such a human tsunami leads to. Probably nowhere without a socialist alternative that can fulfill the popular demands of "bread, freedom and social justice", and this alternative seems so far not in the menu. 

But in any case:

1. Morsi was ruling almost illegally: when the Supreme Court annulled the Parliamentary and Constitutional Assembly elections (on quite good grounds), he did not obey and call new elections, obviously fearing that their pool position advantage (tolerated by Mubarak, sponsored by Saudi Arabia) had been already very eroded.
2. Critically, Morsi was ruling illegitimately, just as Rajoy does in Spain or Erdogan in Turkey. When you do not have the backing of a clear majority anymore, you must put your power at the disposition of the People, calling new elections. It is not and never will be legitimate to stay in power when popular support wanes in such dramatic manner. No matter what laws and constitutions say, they should say otherwise. 
3. Morsi has been an obedient puppet of the USA and its main regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Against the clear will of the Egyptian People he did not even open the border with Gaza in order to alleviate the Zionist siege and he has played always in favor of the Capitalist system of exploitation and therefore has not been able or even willing to solve the dire problems of the Egyptians, which cannot be solved in a Capitalist frame, be it fundamentalist or secular, authoritarian or pseudo-democratic. 
4. The Egyptian Army is highly dependent on US subsidies, being (with Israel and Colombia) one of the top beneficiaries of US military aid. The reason is obvious: the canals (Suez Canal in this case), as well as Egypt being a major regional power, at least potentially. Therefore we should not expect it to bite the hand that feeds them: their main interest is the stability within the Western-Capitalist imperial order, as that is what their master commands. Therefore their intervention is clearly intended to canalize the protests to a stable outcome and nothing else. 
5. Similarly the Muslim Brotherhood is highly dependent on financing by Saudi Arabia and other Arab tyrannies and therefore they will negotiate their place in the new system, knowing that they still have many supporters which will grant them a place under the sun in the new parliament and maybe government. If they do otherwise they will surely fragment and become quite irrelevant. 

The only one who is not dependent on foreign subsidies is the Egyptian Working People. Their demands are clear: bread, freedom and social justice. Will they be met by the new government? I doubt it but only time will tell.

Egypt: the massive protests continue, ministers resign, army sets deadline

The massive demonstrations in Egypt continue for three days in a row. 

At least five ministers, an advisor and former minister and the recently appointed governor of Ismailiya have resigned "in solidarity with the protesters".

The top commander of the Egyptian Army, Abdelfatah al-Sissi issued a deadline of 48 hours to "the political forces" to "solve and satisfy the demands of the people". Else they will intervene.

The anouncement was received with a clamor by the crowds, who chanted "Morsi is not our president, Sissi is with us".

Al-Sissi was appointed commander in chief by Morsi, in a move that was initially perceived as a maneuver by the President to keep the Army in line. However it is obvious by now that Morsi, who has been unwilling to behave democratically and call new elections for Parliament and the Constituent Assembly, angering everyone but his most fanatic followers, is totally out of touch with the social and political reality of Egypt. His rule is effectively over.

Sources[es]: Webguerrillero, Gara.

Egypt: some 14 million protesters demand the resignation of Morsi and new elections

14 million may sound like a lot but it is as official as it can be: the figure has been provided by military sources, which have been monitoring the protests from the air in helicopters.

The opposition movement Tamarod claims to have gathered no less than 22 million signatures for the resignation of President Morsi, many more than the 13 million votes gathered by this one in the elections and almost half of the country's electoral census.

In spite of all this, so far Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood party, which have become in practice continuity of the Mubarak regime, reject resignation or elections, even if they admit "some mistakes". Morsi has fled from Cairo to some military barracks in the country and denounces the protests as a "coup attempt". 

In spite of eight people being killed in the previous days and reports of some gang rapes, the protests seem to be largely peaceful and enthusiastic, maybe overconfident on their numerical strength. The demand is clearly a government that ensures freedom and social justice, no more, no less, and clearly Morsi and the Brotherhood have failed completely in both accounts.

Sources: Yahoo! News (link 1, link 2), Reuters, NBC.

Egypt: clashes between islamo-fascists and opposition leave three dead

At least three people, two Egyptians and one US citizen, have been killed in clashes between Islamists and the wider opposition in Alexandria, in a situation that evidences that the Egyptian Revolution is not yet finished at all, as the reactionary President Morsi has become Mubarak's continuity, bowing to Israel in all and attempting to use the popular revolution to introduce reactionary measures such as legalization of genital mutilation of women (un-islamic but very traditional in many misogynistic societies, especially in Egypt, ~90% of women affected, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia).

The clashes erupted as anti-islamist popular march reached the Islamist AJP's see in Alexandria, the second largest city of Egypt, where a rival concentration of Islamist militants had been organized as well. Two of the victims were killed by fundamentalist thugs apparently using knives as weapons. 

A third person, also a secularist protester, was murdered in Port Said, as a bomb exploded as a demonstration passed by. 

The protests are just a warm up for those scheduled on Sunday, anniversary of the crowning of Morsi as President of Egypt. 18 22 million signatures have been collected demanding Morsi's resignation, more than the 13 million votes he gathered in the presidential elections a year ago. Egypt has some 85 million inhabitants (incl. c. 35 million minors).

All this: the demonstrations and the signature collection have been organized by Tamarod (Rebellion).

Sources: Russia Today, Euronews, Al Jazeera, Gara[es].